Ascending Major Powers

Abstract

We live in an era of structural change. The global system leader's position has declined relative to what it once was. States that were once impoverished are climbing their way up the economic income ladder. One or two of them are large enough, it would appear, to eventually challenge the world's lead economy position. But such a challenge is not likely in the immediate future. It will require a great deal more economic development, for one thing. China and India still possess low-income economics, and they need to continue moving toward high-income economies, Not many countries have been successful in this type of transition. Stalling in the middle-income level may be just as probable as ascending ultimately to the top of the system. Along the way, however, a variety of facilitative and constraining factors will be likely to make some difference. Leading candidates for contributing to successful ascents, for instance, are political leadership and state strength.