A retrospective study of the role of probation revocation in future criminal justice involvement

Abstract

Purpose: Probation revocations and associated incarceration can have detrimental impacts on individuals, their families, and local jails and prisons. Yet, few studies have examined the potential long-term criminogenic effects of revocation. To address this gap, we conducted a retrospective observational study examining whether probation revocation predicted future criminal justice contact. Methods: The sample included 1,873 probation clients who exited probation between 2014 and 2016 in Monroe County, Indiana. We used hierarchical logistic regression models to examine whether probation revocation predicted future criminal justice outcomes including any jail return, any felony charges, any violent charges, any prison return, and any probation return over a five-year follow-up. Results: After controlling for relevant covariates, probation revocation did not predict any of the five outcomes. However, low-risk clients experienced a criminogenic effect of technical violation revocations on the likelihood of returning to jail in the five-year follow-up period. Conclusions: Revocation broadly does not appear to influence future criminal justice contact. Instead, revocation seems to indicate that an individual is already following a trajectory of misconduct. Among low-risk probation clients however, technical violations are particularly harmful. Caution may be warranted when responding to technical violations committed by low-risk clients.