India vs. Pakistan: Revisiting the Pacifying Power of Democracy

Abstract

At the end of the Cold War, South Asia remains one of the most conflict-ridden regions of the world. In addition to the various insurgencies and civil wars that have wracked the subcontinent, the two major powers in South Asia, India and Pakistan, have fought three wars: in 1947—48, 1965, and 1971. More recently, in 1987 and 1990, India and Pakistan have teetered on the brink of war, and border skirmishes are common. The central dispute in the region, the Indo-Pakistani conflict over the state of Jammu and Kashmir, continues to animate national elites and mass populations in both states. Since 1989, India has been suppressing an insurgency in Kashmir—an insurgacy that, despite formal denials from Islamabad, Pakistan has been aiding since at least early 1990. While Pakistan's involvement in the uprising has renewed Indo-Pakistani tensions, it is unlikely that either side will deliberately precipitate a fourth war in die region; nevertheless, another war could ensue from a spiral of hostility and mutual misperception, such as occurred in 1987 and 1990.