Market Behavior in "Lucky" Days

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether or not the markets behave differently in different days of a month merely due to the meaning(s) associated with the digit a particular day end with. We used multiple univariate tests to test the quality of means for lunar days ending 5, 8 and 9(lucky days) against other days. OLS regression was also utilized to test statistical significance for the target dates in both Lunisolar and Gregorian calendar for Heng Seng and S&P 500 daily returns. The study finds that Hang Seng’s returns are higher for the lunar days associated with good luck in the Chinese culture (days end with 8 and 9) and lower for the lunar days ending with 5(5 is associated with unlucky meaning). However, it fails to show similar pattern and results for the S&P 500 daily returns. The research finding provides further evidence that cultural beliefs and superstitions can affect stock market returns. The paper also raises a new perspective and potential reason to explain stock returns movements in different stock markets. It further proves the notion that a significant portion of market movements are caused by participants’ irrational behavior such as cultural beliefs and superstition. Keywords: Behavioral Finance, Abnormal Returns, Superstition, Lunisolar Calendar, Chinese Culture, Language