The limits to integration before and after the great financial crisis

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of different trade-enhancing factors on international trade before and after the financial crisis. Using a sample of 399,225 annual bilateral trade flows over the period 1988-2015, we test if cultural, institutional and geographical factors stimulate bilateral trade by applying a gravity equation model. The great financial crisis reinforced geographical factors and weakened institutional ones. Overall, cultural factors had a positive effect on trade overcompensating the smaller benefit of RTAs and common currencies. It suggests a potential efficient substitution effect between culture and institutions that is largely dominated by the larger negative impact of geographical factors.