Show simple item record Murray, James 2008-05-06T18:47:24Z 2008-05-06T18:47:24Z 2007-11-21
dc.identifier.uri en
dc.identifier.uri en
dc.description.abstract This paper examines the empirical significance of learning, a type of adaptive, boundedly rational expectations, in the U.S. economy within the framework of the New Keynesian model. Two popular specifications of the model are estimated: the standard three equation model that does not include capital, and an extended model that allows for endogenous capital accumulation. Estimation results for learning models can be sensitive to the choice for the initial conditions for agents expectations, so four different methods for choosing initial conditions are examined, including jointly estimating the initial conditions with the other parameters of the model. Maximum likelihood results show that learning under all methods for initial conditions lead to very similar predictions as rational expectations, and do not significantly improve the fit the model. The evolution of forecast errors show that the learning models do not out perform the rational expectations model during the run-up of inflation in the 1970s and the subsequent decline in the 1980s, a period of U.S. history which others have suggested learning may play a role. Despite the failure of learning models to better explain the data, analysis of the paths of expectations and structural shocks during the sample show that allowing for learning in the models can lead to different explanations for the data. en
dc.format.extent 1354229 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.publisher Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research en
dc.relation.ispartofseries CAEPR Working Papers en
dc.relation.ispartofseries 2007-027 en
dc.relation.isversionof This paper is also available on SSRN and RePEc. en
dc.subject CAEPR en
dc.subject Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research en
dc.subject Learning en
dc.subject firm-specific capital en
dc.subject New Keynesian model en
dc.subject maximum likelihood en
dc.title Empirical Significance of Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Firm-Specific Capital en
dc.type Working Paper en

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