Sumit Ganguly Research Collection

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Ascending Major Powers
(Yale University Press, 2017) Ganguly, Sumit; Thompson, William
We live in an era of structural change. The global system leader's position has declined relative to what it once was. States that were once impoverished are climbing their way up the economic income ladder. One or two of them are large enough, it would appear, to eventually challenge the world's lead economy position. But such a challenge is not likely in the immediate future. It will require a great deal more economic development, for one thing. China and India still possess low-income economics, and they need to continue moving toward high-income economies, Not many countries have been successful in this type of transition. Stalling in the middle-income level may be just as probable as ascending ultimately to the top of the system. Along the way, however, a variety of facilitative and constraining factors will be likely to make some difference. Leading candidates for contributing to successful ascents, for instance, are political leadership and state strength.
Avoiding War in Kashmir
(Foreign Affairs, 1990) Ganguly, Sumit
Will the current simmering conflict over Kashmir lead to another subcontinental war? This complex question has plagued India-Pakistan relations since both countries gained independence in 1947, and over the past year tensions in the area have risen sharply. Continuing border skirmishes threaten an already precarious situation, in which international and domestic politics are intertwined with the passions of rival ethnic, religious and partisan interests.
Behind India’s Bomb
(Foreign Affairs, 2001) Ganguly, Sumit
The Indian nuclear tests of May 11 and 13, 1998, shook an unsuspecting world. Long at the forefront of the movement for universal nuclear disarmament, India had continually chastised the five declared nuclear powers (the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom) for not moving to eliminate their nuclear arsenals as called for by the 197o nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. After demonstrating its own nuclear capacity in 1974, India had refrained from testing for more than two decades. And apparently, neither the emergence of a government in New Delhi led by the right-of-center Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor the Indian elites' deep reservations about the global nonproliferation regime had disturbed this quiescence. Indian decision-makers had indicated that they would not carry out nuclear tests until they had completed a lengthy "strategic review' of security threats and how best to cope with them.
Colonial History’s Blind Spots
(Current History, 2017-04) Ganguly, Sumit
A new book on Britain's reign in the subcontinent, departing from earlier generations of scholarship, does not sanitize the brutality and racism that undergirded the colonial enterprise.
Conflict and Crisis in South and Southwest Asia
(M.I.T. Press, 1996) Ganguly, Sumit
South and Southwest Asia are fraught with a range of conflicts. The central inter-state conflict in the region is, of course, the Indo-Pakistani dispute over Kashmir. Virtually all the other conflicts in the region are intra-state conflicts, but with important regional dimensions. They are, starting from the western periphery of South and Southwest Asia, the impact of the disintegration of Afghanistan on Pakistan and the Sindhi-muhajir conflict in Sindh. Conflicts within India include the separatist insurgencies in Kashmir and Punjab, and problems caused by the Uttarkhand movement in Uttar Pradesh, the Naxalite movement in Andhra Pradesh, the Jharkhand movement in Bihar and West Bengal, the Gorkhaland movement in West Bengal, the Bodo tribal movement in Assam, the nativist movement in Assam, and the Naga-Kuki conflict in Nagaland. In addition to these regionally based movements and conflicts, India is also contending with Hindu-Muslim religious and caste-based conflicts. In Bangladesh, the Chakma hill tribes movement in the Chittagong Hill Tracts is the focal point of the country's principal internal conflict. Hindu-Muslim tensions have also resulted in violence in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, the principal conflict is a particularly violent one revolving around Tamil-Sinhalese differences.
Deadly Impasse: Indo-Pakistani Relations at the Dawn of a New Century
(Cambridge University Press, 2016) Ganguly, Sumit
What animates the Indo-Pakistani conflict? The question is far from trivial. This rivalry, which originated almost immediately after British colonial withdrawal from and the partition of the British Indian Empire in 1947, has proven to be remarkably durable. It has resulted in four wars (1947-48, 1965, 1971 and 1999) and multiple crises. The structural origins of this conflict have been explored at length elsewhere.
Ending the Sri Lankan Civil War
(Daedalus, 2018-01) Ganguly, Sumit
The Sri Lankan Civil War erupted in 1983 and dragged on until 2009. The origins of the conflict can be traced to Sri Lanka's colonial era and subsequent postcolonial policies that had significantly constrained the social and economic rights of the minority Tamil population. Convinced that political avenues for redressing extant grievances were unlikely to yield any meaningful results, a segment of the Tamil community turned to violence precipitating the civil war. A number of domestic, regional, and international efforts to bring about a peaceful solution to the conflict all proved to be futile. A military strategy, which involved extraordinary brutality on the part of the Sri Lankan armed forces, brought it to a close. However, few policy initiatives have been undertaken in its wake to address the underlying grievances of the Tamil citizenry that had contributed to the outbreak of the civil war in the first place.
Ethnic Preferences and Political Quiescence in Malaysia and Singapore
(M.I.T. Press, 1997) Ganguly, Sumit
Few multiethnic, postcolonial states have successfully formulated and implemented policies to stave off violent interethnic conflict. The reasons underlying the shortcomings of public policy in multiethnic states are complex. Significantly, however, the vast majority of these states emerged from colonial rule with weak and poorly developed political institutions. The existence of well-developed political institutions can enable a state to channel, mediate, and limit political demands that the forces of modernization unleash. Robust political institutions do not, of course, guarantee ethnic peace. Institutions, unless maintained, can decline and lose their utility.
The Future of ISIS
(Brookings Institution Press, 2018) Ganguly, Sumit; Istrabadi, Feisal
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS throughout this volume) seemed to rise dramatically in 2014, taking over Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, in four hours. A frenzy of activity and hand-wringing ensued, both amongst the ranks of policymakers in various capitals and in the media. Indeed, no major observer of the region, in or out of government, had seen this rise coming, and U.S. officials, starting with the president, had been openly dismissive of ISIS while touting what they deemed to be their far more important success against al Qaeda. Yet here was ISIS achieving what al Qaeda had never even aspired to do in the course of its existence: taking over territory through military means from two governments that had previously controlled it. Overnight, ISIS erased the internationally recognized border between Iraq and Syria and proclaimed the existence of its so-called caliphate and named its amir al-muminin—commander of the faithful—an Iraqi, Ibrahim
How Rivalries End- Ch. 1: The Problem of Rivalry De-escalation and Termination
(University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013) Ganguly, Sumit; Rasler, Karen; Thompson, William R.
The demise of the Cold War caught many, if not all, observers and participants alike by surprise. For much of the time between the end of World War II and the late 1980s/early 1990s, analysts and policymakers alike assumed that the East-West structural cleavage in world politics would remain unvarying. This cleavage was so paramount that it permeated and influenced world politics at all levels. In fact, for many observers every competition appeared, rightly or wrongly, as if it were a proxy struggle for the U.S.-Soviet rivalry. Then, abruptly, the central cleavage no longer existed. As a consequence, analysts and decision makers alike lost their conceptual anchor for deciphering how the world worked. The "world still worked," but a basic key to unlocking the secrets of how it worked had disappeared for good.
If the Pakistanis Strike Again
(Current History, 2010-04) Ganguly, Sumit
India showed restraint when Pakistan-based terrorists attacked Mumbai in November 2008. Next time, the Indian public will demand a military response.
India and Bangladesh
(Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005) Ganguly, Sumit
This paper will assess the "quality of democracy" in India and Bangladesh. It argues that the democratic successes and failures in these two countries are in large measure a function of the sociopolitical milieu within which the democratic transitions took place in both states. It will also argue that despite a range of striking shortcomings India has made significant progress in a number of arenas toward enhancing the quality of its democracy. Bangladesh, on the other hand, has failed to make similar progress. Instead, there is much evidence that suggests that the quality of democracy in Bangladesh is actually declining.
India and China: On a Collision Course
(Pacific Affairs, 2018-06) Ganguly, Sumit
Sino-Indian relations, which have long been fraught, took an especially adverse turn this summer with a military-to-military confrontation on the Doklam Plateau near the India-Bhutan-Tibet trijunction. After several weeks, Indian and Chinese forces withdrew from the region. However, neither side resiled from their respective territorial claims. This episode exemplified the troubles that have come to characterize the Sino-Indian relationship, especially since Prime Minister Modi assumed office in 2014. His regime, which is more nationalistic and reposes greater faith in the utility of force in international politics, had initially sought to diplomatically court the PRC in the hopes of improving their bilateral relationship. However, these efforts did not prove successful. Instead, the People’s Liberation Army, as in the past, continued to undertake limited probes along the Himalayan border, while the PRC continued to make diplomatic, commercial, and strategic inroads into India’s neighbours, trying to reduce India’s influence in those countries. The Modi regime, in turn, sought to counter these initiatives through various efforts of its own in the neighbourhood. Beyond South Asia, India has also sought to enhance its ties with Australia, Japan, the United States, and Vietnam in an attempt to hedge against the PRC’s growing economic and military assertiveness in Asia. These endeavours, however, have elicited hostile reactions from Beijing, which sees New Delhi as the only significant potential hurdle to the expansion of its influence in Asia. Despite Beijing’s adverse reactions it is unlikely that the current regime in New Delhi will scale back its efforts to cope with what it deems to be significant threats emanating from its behemoth northern neighbour.
India and Eastphalia
(Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 2010) Fidler, David P.; Ganguly, Sumit
Much of the attention paid to the growth in the political, economic, and strategic importance of Asia focuses on East and Southeast Asia, with China's rise featuring most prominently in analyses. However, examination of the possible development of an international order influenced by Asian power and ideas must also include consideration of the other big, emerging Asian power—India. This article explores India's complex role in the potential dawning and functioning of an Eastphalian international system. First, we look at features of India's economic and political rise in the past ten to fifteen years in order to give the reader a sense of India's place in the shift of power and influence in international relations toward Asia. Second, we examine India's commitment to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence as an ordering framework for India's worldview and foreign policy. Third, we argue that despite India's increasing geopolitical prominence, Indian leaders have failed to develop consistent and coherent strategies for India in relation to the shifts taking place in world politics and economics. Fourth, we argue that India's indecisiveness may combine with massive domestic problems the country faces, such as crippling levels of continuing poverty, to render Indian power and influence increasingly impotent in and irrelevant to the evolution of an Eastphalian world order. Fifth, we explore whether India could carve a path other than irrelevance, a path that would instead make India the indispensable nation in stabilizing the Eastphalian world. By “indispensable” we mean the country that could bridge East and West in the multipolar world this century will experience and, in the process, play a decisive role in melding the lingering promise of democracy with the stubborn imperative of sovereignty.
India and the Crisis in Kashmir
(Asian Survey, 1994-05) Ganguly, Sumit; Bajpai, Kanti
With the end of the Cold War, regional security problems have become paradigmatic. Whereas they were once seen primarily as functions of-or in some cases even epiphenomenal to-superpower rivalry, they are now central. International security is largely regional security in the absence of a global strategic conflict. As a result, attention has shifted from consideration of the global strategic balance to local conflict. Broadly, these local conflicts are a function of two factors: regional distributions of power but also animosities rooted in ethnic, religious, territorial, and irredentist contestation. The problem for policy is that the latter factors are more intractable than the former; distributions of power are more amenable to management than are animosities based on, or evocative of seemingly old quarrels and fears. This article focuses on one of the most costly and dangerous of these animosities, namely, the Indian and Pakistani contest over the divided state of Kashmir.
India Held Back
(Current History, 2008-11) Ganguly, Sumit
The country still faces a series of domestic and external challenges that remain significant hurdles on the path to great power status.
India in 2008: Domestic Turmoil and External Hopes
(Asian Survey, 2009) Ganguly, Sumit
The past year saw significant domestic turmoil in India. The country confronted a series of terrorist attacks including the one in Bombay, witnessed ethno-religious violence, dealt with a resurgent Maoist (Naxalite) guerilla movement, and faced agitations from agricultural communities over the acquisition of land for industrialization. On the external front, India managed to consummate a critical civilian nuclear agreement with the U.S., after much domestic debate and contention.
India since 1980- Ch. 1: Four Revolutions and India's Future
(Cambridge University Press, 2011) Ganguly, Sumit; Mukherji, Rahul
For the better part of the past three decades the Indian polity has been in the throes of four revolutionary changes. They are in the realms of political mobilization, secularism, foreign policy, and economic policy making. These transformations have not moved in tandem but have overlapped with one another. Nevertheless, they collectively represent a steady and potentially fundamental remaking of many features of the Indian political landscape.
India vs. Pakistan: Revisiting the Pacifying Power of Democracy
(M.I.T. Press, 1997) Ganguly, Sumit
At the end of the Cold War, South Asia remains one of the most conflict-ridden regions of the world. In addition to the various insurgencies and civil wars that have wracked the subcontinent, the two major powers in South Asia, India and Pakistan, have fought three wars: in 1947—48, 1965, and 1971. More recently, in 1987 and 1990, India and Pakistan have teetered on the brink of war, and border skirmishes are common. The central dispute in the region, the Indo-Pakistani conflict over the state of Jammu and Kashmir, continues to animate national elites and mass populations in both states. Since 1989, India has been suppressing an insurgency in Kashmir—an insurgacy that, despite formal denials from Islamabad, Pakistan has been aiding since at least early 1990. While Pakistan's involvement in the uprising has renewed Indo-Pakistani tensions, it is unlikely that either side will deliberately precipitate a fourth war in die region; nevertheless, another war could ensue from a spiral of hostility and mutual misperception, such as occurred in 1987 and 1990.
India's Rise in Asia
(Rowman and Littlefield, 2008) Ganguly, Sumit
The last decade has witnessed a dramatic transformation of India's foreign and economic policies. These changes have fundamentally enhanced India's profile in Asia and beyond. India has forged significant ties with the economically dynamic parts of Southeast Asia, signed an important free trade agreement with Singapore, become a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and has broadened its relationship with Japan. Through the forging of multiple bilateral and multilateral ties, it is seeking to assert itself as a significant actor in the region.

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