Sumit Ganguly Research Collection

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The Sino-Indian Border Talks, 1981-1989: A View from New Delhi
(Asian Survey, 1989-12) Ganguly, Sumit
Rajiv Gandhi's visit to the People's Republic of China (PRC) in December 1988 was the first undertaken by an Indian prime minister since 1954. Though marked with considerable fanfare, including the inevitable trip to the Great Wall, the accomplishments of the visit were modest, primarily the creation of a Joint Working Group mandated to seek a solution to the long-standing border dispute. The two nations also agreed to broaden cultural, education, and scientific contacts. Finally, as stated in the ambiguous language of a diplomatic communique, New Delhi and Beijing agreed to maintain "peace and tranquility" along the border. From the Chinese standpoint, the most significant accomplishment was the explicit acknowledgment by Prime Minister Gandhi that Tibet is an internal affair of China. Chinese keenness to obtain this Indian endorsement was no doubt closely linked to the recent political stirrings in Tibet.
Avoiding War in Kashmir
(Foreign Affairs, 1990) Ganguly, Sumit
Will the current simmering conflict over Kashmir lead to another subcontinental war? This complex question has plagued India-Pakistan relations since both countries gained independence in 1947, and over the past year tensions in the area have risen sharply. Continuing border skirmishes threaten an already precarious situation, in which international and domestic politics are intertwined with the passions of rival ethnic, religious and partisan interests.
India: Charting a New Course?
(Current History, 1993-12) Ganguly, Sumit
The specter of irrelevance in the emerging world order haunts the Indian state. Mainly because of flawed and short-sighted policies, the country is besieged by a legion of problems, none of them easily solved. With the end of the cold war, many of the familiar moorings of India's foreign policy have been sundered. The nation finds itself adrift. If India is to play a role commensurate with its size and economic potential, its leaders will have to demonstrate considerable dexterity in tackling the new challenges on the domestic front and abroad. Failure to do so may well result in India's permanent relegation to the status of a crippled giant.
India and the Crisis in Kashmir
(Asian Survey, 1994-05) Ganguly, Sumit; Bajpai, Kanti
With the end of the Cold War, regional security problems have become paradigmatic. Whereas they were once seen primarily as functions of-or in some cases even epiphenomenal to-superpower rivalry, they are now central. International security is largely regional security in the absence of a global strategic conflict. As a result, attention has shifted from consideration of the global strategic balance to local conflict. Broadly, these local conflicts are a function of two factors: regional distributions of power but also animosities rooted in ethnic, religious, territorial, and irredentist contestation. The problem for policy is that the latter factors are more intractable than the former; distributions of power are more amenable to management than are animosities based on, or evocative of seemingly old quarrels and fears. This article focuses on one of the most costly and dangerous of these animosities, namely, the Indian and Pakistani contest over the divided state of Kashmir.
Conflict and Crisis in South and Southwest Asia
(M.I.T. Press, 1996) Ganguly, Sumit
South and Southwest Asia are fraught with a range of conflicts. The central inter-state conflict in the region is, of course, the Indo-Pakistani dispute over Kashmir. Virtually all the other conflicts in the region are intra-state conflicts, but with important regional dimensions. They are, starting from the western periphery of South and Southwest Asia, the impact of the disintegration of Afghanistan on Pakistan and the Sindhi-muhajir conflict in Sindh. Conflicts within India include the separatist insurgencies in Kashmir and Punjab, and problems caused by the Uttarkhand movement in Uttar Pradesh, the Naxalite movement in Andhra Pradesh, the Jharkhand movement in Bihar and West Bengal, the Gorkhaland movement in West Bengal, the Bodo tribal movement in Assam, the nativist movement in Assam, and the Naga-Kuki conflict in Nagaland. In addition to these regionally based movements and conflicts, India is also contending with Hindu-Muslim religious and caste-based conflicts. In Bangladesh, the Chakma hill tribes movement in the Chittagong Hill Tracts is the focal point of the country's principal internal conflict. Hindu-Muslim tensions have also resulted in violence in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, the principal conflict is a particularly violent one revolving around Tamil-Sinhalese differences.
National Security
(Library of Congress, 1996) Ganguly, Sumit
The Indian armed forces have undergone a substantial metamorphosis since the emergence of India and Pakistan from the British Indian Empire in 1947. India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru (1947-64), had deliberately limited the expansion and modernization of the armed forces. The rationale was twofold: Nehru was acutely concerned about the accelerating costs of defense spending, and he feared that an excessive emphasis on the armed forces would lead to the militarization of society and undermine the nation's fledgling democratic institutions. The disastrous performance of the Indian army during the 1962 border war with China, however, led to a reappraisal of defense strategy and spending. Nehru's legacy eroded rapidly as increasing emphasis was placed on defense needs. The success of the Indian military against Pakistan during their 1971 war contributed to restoring the morale and standing in society of the armed forces. During the rest of the 1970s and in the 1980s, India bolstered its regional preeminence with wide-ranging arms transfers from the Soviet Union. In the late 1980s, in an effort to reduce its dependence on Soviet weaponry, India began to diversify its arms sources. It purchased aircraft, submarines, and long-range artillery pieces from France, the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany), Sweden, and Britain. Simultaneously, it continued its efforts to expand and strengthen domestic capabilities to manufacture a range of weaponry to maximize self-reliance. The results of these purchases and self-reliance efforts have been mixed.
Political Mobilization and Institutional Decay: Explaining the Crisis in Kashmir
(International Security, 1996) Ganguly, Sumit
On December 8, 1989, members of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front kidnapped Dr. Rubiya Sayeed, the daughter of the Indian Minister of Home Affairs, as she left a government hospital in Srinagar. The kidnappers refused to release her until several incarcerated members of their outlawed group were released. Following hasty negotiations over the next several days, the government in New Delhi agreed to meet the abductors' demands. In the weeks and months that followed, dozens of insurgent groups emerged and wreaked havoc throughout the Kashmir Valley, killing government officials, security personnel, and innocent bystanders. Although they were of varying ideological orientations, all the insurgent groups professed opposition to Indian rule in Jammu and Kashmir, and the authority of the Indian state virtually collapsed there.
Uncertain India
(Current History, 1996-04) Ganguly, Sumit
As India prepares to hold its eleventh general election this April, a profound sense of uncertainty stalks the political scene. It is by no means clear that any single party will emerge victorious. In India and abroad, political pundits are predicting a rout for the ruling Congress Party. Yet no other party seems to have sufficient support to sweep the polls. This bodes ill for Indias future, and places many of the hard-won political and economic gains of the past few years at risk.
India vs. Pakistan: Revisiting the Pacifying Power of Democracy
(M.I.T. Press, 1997) Ganguly, Sumit
At the end of the Cold War, South Asia remains one of the most conflict-ridden regions of the world. In addition to the various insurgencies and civil wars that have wracked the subcontinent, the two major powers in South Asia, India and Pakistan, have fought three wars: in 1947—48, 1965, and 1971. More recently, in 1987 and 1990, India and Pakistan have teetered on the brink of war, and border skirmishes are common. The central dispute in the region, the Indo-Pakistani conflict over the state of Jammu and Kashmir, continues to animate national elites and mass populations in both states. Since 1989, India has been suppressing an insurgency in Kashmir—an insurgacy that, despite formal denials from Islamabad, Pakistan has been aiding since at least early 1990. While Pakistan's involvement in the uprising has renewed Indo-Pakistani tensions, it is unlikely that either side will deliberately precipitate a fourth war in die region; nevertheless, another war could ensue from a spiral of hostility and mutual misperception, such as occurred in 1987 and 1990.
Introduction: Government Policies and Ethnic Relations in Asia and the Pacific
(M.I.T. Press, 1997) Brown, Michael E.
Ethnic problems are widespread in contemporary world affairs. They are troublesome at best; politically, economically, and socially disruptive as a general rule; and horrifyingly violent at worst. In this book, we seek to advance understanding of ethnic problems by analyzing government policies with respect to ethnic groups, ethnic issues, and ethnic conflicts in Asia and the Pacific. Our contention is that government policies almost always have a significant impact on the course and trajectory of ethnic relations in the country in question. Through neglect, by accident, and by design, they can push countries in the direction of instability, conflict, and inequity, on the one hand, or stability, harmony, and justice, on the other. However, the extent to which and the ways in which government policies can affect ethnic dynamics have not received much focused attention in research and scholarship on the subject, and government policies have not been examined from a broad comparative perspective.
Ethnic Preferences and Political Quiescence in Malaysia and Singapore
(M.I.T. Press, 1997) Ganguly, Sumit
Few multiethnic, postcolonial states have successfully formulated and implemented policies to stave off violent interethnic conflict. The reasons underlying the shortcomings of public policy in multiethnic states are complex. Significantly, however, the vast majority of these states emerged from colonial rule with weak and poorly developed political institutions. The existence of well-developed political institutions can enable a state to channel, mediate, and limit political demands that the forces of modernization unleash. Robust political institutions do not, of course, guarantee ethnic peace. Institutions, unless maintained, can decline and lose their utility.
The Kashmir Problem Revisited
(Current History, 1997-12) Ganguly, Sumit
As India and Pakistan "enter their sixth decade of independence, it is time to close-a tragic chapter that has bedeviled their relations from the very outset."
India’s Pathway to Pokhran II
(International Security, 1999) Ganguly, Sumit
On May 11 and 13, 1998, India set off five nuclear devices at its test site in Pokhran in the northwestern Indian state of Rajasthan-its first such tests in twenty-four years. The initial test had been carried out at the same site on May 18, 1974. Not unexpectedly, as in 1974 much of the world community, including the majority of the great powers, unequivocally condemned the Indian tests. The coalition national government, dominated by the jingoistic Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), knew that significant international pressures would be brought to bear upon India once it breached this important threshold. Yet the BJP chose to disregard the likely adverse consequences and departed from India's post- 1974 "nuclear option" policy, which had reserved for India the right to weaponize its nuclear capabilities but had not overtly declared its weapons capability. National governments of varying political persuasions had adhered to this strategy for more than two decades.
Nuclear Crisis Stability in South Asia
(Asian Survey, 2001) Ganguly, Sumit; Biringer, Kent L.
Relations between India and Pakistan have been fraught with conflict since their emergence from the detritus of the British Indian Empire in 1947. In the British Indian Empire, there were two classes of states. One set of states, those of British India, was directly under the tutelage of the British Crown. The others, the so-called princely states, were nominally independent as long as they accepted the British as the paramount power in the subcontinent. Since their independence from England, India and Pakistan have had markedly divergent concepts of nation building and quickly became embroiled over a territorial dispute involving the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir.
Behind India’s Bomb
(Foreign Affairs, 2001) Ganguly, Sumit
The Indian nuclear tests of May 11 and 13, 1998, shook an unsuspecting world. Long at the forefront of the movement for universal nuclear disarmament, India had continually chastised the five declared nuclear powers (the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom) for not moving to eliminate their nuclear arsenals as called for by the 197o nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. After demonstrating its own nuclear capacity in 1974, India had refrained from testing for more than two decades. And apparently, neither the emergence of a government in New Delhi led by the right-of-center Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor the Indian elites' deep reservations about the global nonproliferation regime had disturbed this quiescence. Indian decision-makers had indicated that they would not carry out nuclear tests until they had completed a lengthy "strategic review' of security threats and how best to cope with them.
Putting South Asia Back Together Again
(Current History, 2001-12) Ganguly, Sumit
Should the United States simply relegate Afghanistan, and South Asia in general, to the outer fringes of its concerns once bin Laden and his acolytes in the Al Qaeda terror network have been either prosecuted or destroyed, Afghanistan could again become a fertile arena for the genesis of other militant Islamist organizations intent on wreaking havoc on the Western world.
Pakistan’s Slide into Misery
(Foreign Affairs, 2002) Ganguly, Sumit
Late this summer, General Pervez Musharraf-Pakistan's self-appointed president and chief executive-delivered yet another devastating blow to the country's democratic prospects. At an August 21 press conference, Musharraf announced 29 new amendments to the constitution that vastly strengthened the powers of the military and the executive. Among other prerogatives, these amendments gave the president (who will be Musharraf for at least the next five years, thanks to the fraud-ridden "referendum" held in April) the power to dismiss Pakistan's legislature-effectively making all of parliament's actions subject to his approval. Another innovation, the National Security Council, formally institutionalized the already pervasive role of the military in the country's politics.
Introduction: Fighting Words: Language Policies and Ethnic Relations in Asia
(M.I.T. Press, 2003) Ganguly, Sumit; Brown, Michael E.
This book is based on three premises. First, ethnic problems are important policy problems. Very few countries are ethnically homogeneous, which means that most countries have to contend with ethnic problems of one kind or another.l These problems often have tremendous political, economic, social, and military consequences. They can disrupt political and economic development in countries that are struggling to advance. When ethnic problems turn violent, countries can be ripped apart, entire regions can be destabilized, and the humanitarian consequences can be staggering. Second, language is an important issue in many ethnic settings. Language is a critical marker for many groups—defining the boundaries of the group and determining membership in the group. In multiethnic settings, language policies have far-reaching effects in the educational, economic, and political arenas. Languages policies are therefore contentious issues in multiethnic countries. Third, although ethnic problems and conflicts are influenced by a wide range of factors, they are shaped to a significant degree by the decisions and policies of political leaders and governments. Government policies must be taken into account if we are to understand the dynamics of ethnic problems and if we are to develop effective responses to these problems.
Pakistan: The Other Rogue Nation
(Current History, 2004-04) Ganguly, Sumit
There is little question that ultimate responsibility for the dispersal of nuclear technology from Pakistan rests squarely with the Pakistani military.
India and Bangladesh
(Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005) Ganguly, Sumit
This paper will assess the "quality of democracy" in India and Bangladesh. It argues that the democratic successes and failures in these two countries are in large measure a function of the sociopolitical milieu within which the democratic transitions took place in both states. It will also argue that despite a range of striking shortcomings India has made significant progress in a number of arenas toward enhancing the quality of its democracy. Bangladesh, on the other hand, has failed to make similar progress. Instead, there is much evidence that suggests that the quality of democracy in Bangladesh is actually declining.

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